Keyvan Jafari Tehrani assesses the impact of logistics restrictions on Iran\u2019s foreign trade<\/strong><\/p>\nThe inclusion of rail transport in the sanctions regime is further narrowing Iran\u2019s alternative routes beyond sea and air transport.<\/p>\n
Keyvan Jafari Tehrani: Logistics Disruptions Could Escalate from Export Losses to Production Shutdowns<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s options for alternative trade routes are narrowing. Following restrictions on maritime and air transportation, the inclusion of the railway sector in sanctions is further limiting the country\u2019s logistical flexibility. Keyvan Jafari Tehrani, former head of international relations at the Iranian Iron Ore Association and a senior international market analyst, warned in an assessment to Eghtesadnews that the impact could extend across the entire supply chain, from trade and transportation costs to export revenues, raw material supplies and production lines.<\/p>\n
Karachi Option Proves Costly<\/p>\n
According to Tehrani, following the blockade of southern ports, traders began looking for alternative routes. In April, May and June, some traders reportedly unloaded imported cargo at Pakistan\u2019s Port of Karachi, expecting containers to be transported into Iran relatively easily.<\/p>\n
The analyst said inaccurate information circulated by some media outlets and civil organizations without sufficient research had imposed significant costs on traders. Thousands of containers are still reportedly waiting at Pakistani ports. The distance between Karachi and the Iranian border exceeds 900 km, while challenges in moving the cargo onward remain unresolved.<\/p>\n
As the Pakistan route became increasingly constrained, some market players turned to rail for both imports and exports. Tehrani warned that the latest restrictions could weaken this alternative as well. While acknowledging that not all countries would necessarily enforce the sanctions, he said he was certain that some would do so, which would automatically affect a key artery of Iran\u2019s foreign trade. He declined to name the countries involved.<\/p>\n
Rail, Road and Sea Transport Cannot Fully Substitute for One Another<\/p>\n
One of Tehrani\u2019s key observations concerns the significant difference in transportation capacity. A single train formation can carry approximately 2,500 tonnes, while a standard truck typically carries around 25 tonnes, or up to 40 tonnes in some countries.<\/p>\n
The analyst said Iran\u2019s road infrastructure would not be capable of absorbing cargo diverted from rail. In maritime transport, meanwhile, neither rail nor road can provide sufficient capacity to replace sea freight. He also noted that not every neighboring country considered an alternative route is connected to Iran by rail.<\/p>\n
Exporters Struggle to Pass Higher Costs on to Buyers<\/p>\n
Rail is used for both imports and exports in Iran, although its share is higher on the import side. For exports, China is one of the main destinations. Previously, once cargo was loaded, shipments could reach China within approximately 20\u201325 days.<\/p>\n
Under the new restrictions, trains may be unable to pass through certain countries, potentially extending transit routes. As transit times increase, transportation costs are also expected to rise.<\/p>\n
On the import side, higher logistics and insurance costs increase the final price of goods, making imported products more expensive in the domestic market and adding to inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n
Exporters, however, face a more vulnerable position. Since the price at the destination market is largely predetermined, passing higher transportation costs on to buyers can be difficult. As a result, goods may have to be sold at lower prices at the point of departure in Iran, squeezing exporters\u2019 margins. Tehrani warned that for some products, exports could eventually become economically unviable.<\/p>\n
The analyst did not provide an estimate of how much costs could increase, explaining that any figure mentioned in the media would immediately be priced into the market.<\/p>\n
Chain Reaction Could Bring Production to a Standstill<\/p>\n
According to Tehrani, the impact is not limited to foreign trade. Disruptions in the supply of raw materials can cause losses for producers, while companies facing export bottlenecks may be forced to reduce production, potentially creating excess supply that cannot be absorbed by the domestic market.<\/p>\n
If the restrictions persist, the chain reaction could involve rising trade and logistics costs, weakening export competitiveness, disruptions to raw material supplies and, ultimately, reduced production or shutdowns at some companies. Tehrani emphasized that these developments are interconnected and should be viewed as a chain reaction rather than isolated problems.<\/p>\n
Tehrani\u2019s background is rooted in the iron ore sector, and the mechanism he describes is particularly relevant to high-volume, low-margin commodities. When transportation costs per tonne rise, pressure is placed on the achievable selling price at the point of origin.<\/p>\n
Given the importance of rail routes toward China for Iranian exports of iron ore, concentrates and semi-finished products, the development should be closely monitored for its potential impact on regional steel and raw material flows.<\/p>\n
Source: Eghtesadnews<\/p>\n
https:\/\/www.steelradar.com\/en\/haber\/keyvan-jafari-tehrani-assesses-the-impact-of-logistics-restrictions-on-irans-foreign-trade\/<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Keyvan Jafari Tehrani: Lojistik aksama, ihracat kayb\u0131ndan \u00fcretim durdurmaya uzanabilir<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaretinde alternatif g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar daral\u0131yor. Deniz ve hava ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan demiryolu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn de yapt\u0131r\u0131m kapsam\u0131na girmesi, \u00fclkenin lojistik hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 bir kez daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fcyor. \u0130ran Demir Cevheri Derne\u011fi eski uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve k\u0131demli uluslararas\u0131 piyasa analisti Keyvan Jafari Tehrani, Eghtesadnews’e yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede tablonun ticaret maliyetinden ihracat gelirine, hammadde tedarikinden \u00fcretim hatlar\u0131na kadar geni\u015f bir zincire yay\u0131labilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Kara\u00e7i denemesi pahal\u0131ya patlad\u0131<\/p>\n
Tehrani’ye g\u00f6re g\u00fcney limanlar\u0131ndaki ablukan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan herkes \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu aramaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Nisan-May\u0131s ve Haziran aylar\u0131nda baz\u0131 t\u00fcccarlar ithal y\u00fcklerini Pakistan’\u0131n Kara\u00e7i Liman\u0131’nda bo\u015faltarak konteynerlerin \u0130ran’a kolayca ge\u00e7ece\u011fini umdu. Analist, bu g\u00fczerg\u00e2hla ilgili baz\u0131 bas\u0131n organlar\u0131n\u0131n ve sivil kurulu\u015flar\u0131n yeterli ara\u015ft\u0131rma yapmadan yayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f bilgilerin t\u00fcccara ciddi maliyet y\u00fckledi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Binlerce konteyner h\u00e2l\u00e2 Pakistan limanlar\u0131nda bekliyor. Kara\u00e7i ile \u0130ran s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki mesafe 900 kilometreyi a\u015f\u0131yor ve y\u00fcklerin ilerletilmesi sorunu s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Pakistan se\u00e7ene\u011fi t\u0131kan\u0131nca baz\u0131 oyuncular ithalat ve ihracat i\u00e7in demiryoluna y\u00f6neldi. Tehrani’ye g\u00f6re yeni k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar bu alternatifi de zay\u0131flatabilir. Yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerce uygulanmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul ediyor, ancak bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n uygulayaca\u011f\u0131ndan emin oldu\u011funu ve bunun \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f ticaretinin ana damar\u0131n\u0131 otomatik olarak etkileyece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u00dclke isimlerini vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ray, yol ve deniz birbirinin yerini tutmuyor<\/p>\n
Tehrani’nin en vurgulu tespiti kapasite fark\u0131. Bir tren kompozisyonu yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.500 ton ta\u015f\u0131rken standart bir t\u0131r yakla\u015f\u0131k 25 ton, baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde en fazla 40 ton ta\u015f\u0131yabiliyor. \u0130ran’\u0131n karayolu altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n raydan kayacak y\u00fck\u00fc kald\u0131ramayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten analist, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda ise ray ve kara yolunun hacim a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca alternatif g\u00fczerg\u00e2h olarak an\u0131lan her kom\u015fu \u00fclke \u0130ran’a demiryoluyla ba\u011fl\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
\u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131 maliyeti fiyata yans\u0131tam\u0131yor<\/p>\n
Demiryolu, \u0130ran’\u0131n hem ithalat\u0131nda hem ihracat\u0131nda kullan\u0131l\u0131yor; ancak ithalattaki pay\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek. \u0130hracatta a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak \u00c7in y\u00f6n\u00fc tercih ediliyor. Y\u00fckleme tamamland\u0131ktan sonra \u00c7in’e var\u0131\u015f s\u00fcresi 20-25 g\u00fcn s\u00fcr\u00fcyordu. Yeni k\u0131s\u0131tlamalarla trenlerin baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerden ge\u00e7ememesi rotay\u0131 uzatacak, s\u00fcre uzad\u0131k\u00e7a maliyet de artacak.<\/p>\n
\u0130thalat taraf\u0131nda lojistik ve sigorta maliyetleri nihai fiyat\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor; bu da i\u00e7 piyasada ithal mallar\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve enflasyonist bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n durumu daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan: Var\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131ndaki fiyat belli oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in artan ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetini al\u0131c\u0131ya yans\u0131tmas\u0131 zor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak mal, \u0130ran \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyattan sat\u0131l\u0131yor ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2r\u0131 eriyor. Tehrani, baz\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde ihracat\u0131n ekonomik olarak anlam\u0131n\u0131 yitirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Analist, maliyetin ne kadar artaca\u011f\u0131na dair rakam vermedi; bas\u0131nda dile getirilen her say\u0131n\u0131n piyasada an\u0131nda fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Zincirleme etki: \u00dcretim durma noktas\u0131na gelebilir<\/p>\n
Tehrani’ye g\u00f6re sorun yaln\u0131zca ticaretle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalm\u0131yor. Hammadde giri\u015fi aksarsa \u00fcreticiler zarar g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, ihracat\u0131 t\u0131kanan firman\u0131n \u00fcretimi do\u011frudan etkileniyor ve yurt i\u00e7inde t\u00fcketilemeyen fazla \u00fcretim ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. K\u0131s\u0131tlamalar s\u00fcrerse ticaret maliyeti art\u0131yor, ihracat rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, hammadde tedariki bozuluyor ve sonunda baz\u0131 firmalar\u0131n \u00fcretimi azal\u0131yor ya da duruyor. Bu halkalar\u0131n birbirinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z de\u011fil, zincirleme i\u015fledi\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n
Tehrani’nin ge\u00e7mi\u015fi demir cevheri sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne dayan\u0131yor ve anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 mekanizma hacimli, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck marjl\u0131 emtialar i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7erli: Ton ba\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyeti artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 geriye do\u011fru bask\u0131lan\u0131yor. Cevher, konsantre ve yar\u0131 mamul ihracat\u0131nda \u00c7in y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ray g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, geli\u015fmenin b\u00f6lgesel arz ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131na etkisi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n
Source: Steelradar<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Keyvan Jafari Tehrani assesses the impact of logistics restrictions on Iran\u2019s foreign trade The inclusion of rail transport in the sanctions regime is further narrowing Iran\u2019s alternative routes beyond sea and air transport. Keyvan Jafari Tehrani: Logistics Disruptions Could Escalate from Export Losses to Production Shutdowns Iran\u2019s options for alternative trade routes are narrowing. Following […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3243,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,21],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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He has been exporting minerals and steel value chain products especially iron ore, concentrate, HBI, steel products to various markets, but mainly to China and ASEAN countries, for about 26 Years. He has 36 years solid experience in the field of mining production & export of commodities. He was a Member of the Board & Head of International Affairs of IROPEX (Iranian Iron Ore Producers & Exporters Association) from 2012 up to 2017. Keyvan has a Bachelor degree in Electronic Engineering, Masters degree in Medical Engineering and MBA and Phd. in Radiology from Iranian Reputable Universities and numerous post-graduation courses in Mining, Steel & Management Fields from Iranian & Foreign Universities. Currently, he is a Professor & Senior Analyst in International Economy and Commodities and has numerous articles published in Iranian & International Websites, News Agencies & Media. 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Keyvan Jafari Tehrani: Logistics Disruptions Could Escalate from Export Losses to Production Shutdowns Iran\u2019s options for alternative trade routes are narrowing. 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He has been exporting minerals and steel value chain products especially iron ore, concentrate, HBI, steel products to various markets, but mainly to China and ASEAN countries, for about 26 Years. He has 36 years solid experience in the field of mining production & export of commodities. He was a Member of the Board & Head of International Affairs of IROPEX (Iranian Iron Ore Producers & Exporters Association) from 2012 up to 2017. Keyvan has a Bachelor degree in Electronic Engineering, Masters degree in Medical Engineering and MBA and Phd. in Radiology from Iranian Reputable Universities and numerous post-graduation courses in Mining, Steel & Management Fields from Iranian & Foreign Universities. Currently, he is a Professor & Senior Analyst in International Economy and Commodities and has numerous articles published in Iranian & International Websites, News Agencies & Media. Keyvan had 158th successful attendance as Keynote S., Speaker or panelist in International Overseas Conferences Worldwide during the past Decade.","sameAs":["http:\/\/kjtehrani.com"],"url":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/author\/kjtehrani\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3241"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3241"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3241\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3245,"href":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3241\/revisions\/3245"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kjtehrani.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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