Semis, DRI export trade stays subdued in Iran, clarity in currency rules awaited
Iran’s semis export market remains unusually quiet this week, with billet and DRI sellers holding back amid ongoing changes in the export currency system and stricter controls on commercial trading cards. Market participants report growing uncertainty as mills and traders wait for the full operations of the secondary exchange mechanism, which is expected to reshape pricing, margins and export flows across the steel value chain.
Activity in the semis segment remains limited, with traders and producers adopting a cautious stance. “Billet is not sold too much. Everybody is waiting for the second exchange room to become fully active this week,” Keyvan Jafari Tehrani, a senior market analyst, told Metal Expert. The DRI segment is also at a standstill for the same reason. Several sizeable semis and metallised product cargoes are reportedly stuck at customs as commercial card holders currently lack approval to obtain export permits.
The sentiment remains mixed. “Exporters must now provide a bank guarantee and sell the same amount of currency at a much lower official rate before they can offer funds in the secondary market. Naturally, this pushes prices higher,” a trader said. These regulations have put independent exporters on the sidelines while mills have gained more control over FOB levels and received direct access to exports, according to Venus Najafi, an independent steel procurement advisor and market consultant. At the same time, some mills are reducing prices based on the emerging expectations that they may soon be allowed to use the secondary exchange rate for 60% of their export proceeds while the remaining 40% must still be cleared at the 70,000 toman rate. “We are waiting for more clarity. Maybe the government will continue allowing us to export as well,” another trader commented.
Despite the complicated environment, some deals were reported. Mills indicated bookings of around 30,000 t of billet at $410-415/t FOB for December-January shipments. A supplier in East Azerbaijan province is offering 10,000 t at $410/t FOB Bandar Abbas with some room for discounts. Khorasan Steel Complex was reportedly selling semis at around $380/t EXW for shipments to Central Asia.
Given mills’ current advantage in accessing export channels and the expectations of clearer regulations shortly, Metal Expert increased its weekly price assessment for Iranian export billet by $3/t to $408/t FOB on December 2.
On the supply side, gas availability has so far been better than last year, delaying the usual seasonal impact on semis production. “The only reason gas has not yet been heavily restricted is that weather conditions have been mild with no snow,” Reza Shahrestani, the representative of the Iranian Steel Producers’ Association (ISPA), said. “So far this year, the situation has been slightly better. The government has announced there will be no restrictions until mid-December; however, what we hear on the ground is that local gas companies have already imposed certain restrictions, but later than last year,” Bahador Ahramian, another ISPA official, added. Last year, the restrictions came in force in mid-October. If gas shortage intensifies, mills may use the situation to support firmer offered prices.
Export prospects for December-February remain limited due to more competitive Chinese billet offers in Asia. “In March, prices may increase slightly, giving Iran more chances to export to the Far East,” Keyvan Jafari Tehrani said.
In the pellets segment, prices are ranging within $95-100/t FOB depending on the quality and terms of payment. “Not too much pellet volumes are available for export nowadays because both China and India are eager to buy more during the winter season,” a source told Metal Expert.
Source: metalexpert