Uncertainty grows in Iran’s semis export segment due to sanctions
01 October 25 21:37
The political agenda remains the decisive factor shaping Iran’s steel export trade, setting the tone for market activity. Semis export is currently experiencing higher pressure, overshadowed by a new wave of the US and EU sanctions that have created uncertainty for suppliers. While the full consequences of these developments are not yet visible, industry players expect their impact to emerge gradually in the coming months.
Most sellers prefer to stay out of the market and do not announce either official offers or new tenders. In general, Iranian billet can still be nominally booked at $415-420/t FOB, unchanged over the week. Traders are ready to sell semis at much lower levels – around $375-385/t FOB compared to $380-407/t FOB last week. The restoration of the international blockade resulted in the local currency fluctuations, with the exchange rate moving to $1 = 113,850 toman versus $1 = 107,850 toman a week ago.
Given the lack of business activity, Metal Expert decided to keep its weekly price assessment for Iranian export billets unchanged at $413/t FOB on October 1.
The reimposition of sanctions significantly worsened the moods in the Iranian export segment. Some market players do not expect any severe impact on the business, while others consider that the serious outcomes may be visible in several months. “So far, the true conditions are not clear. Three months later, it will be clearer how to export,” a trader noted. “It is too early to share any opinions and forecasts now. We need to have more time to see what will happen,” a major semis producer told Metal Expert.
In the meantime, the announcement about new limitations reflected in transportation costs changes and will continue affecting them both for upstream and downstream products. “The tremendous supervision and the monitoring of shipments from Iran will affect the freight rate. They can stop the vessel on a random basis and check details. The freight has already increased for bulk shipments by $1/t to $23.5/t to northern China and may gain another $1-2/t as soon as China returns from public holidays,” Keyvan Jafari Tehrani told Metal Expert.